Exit poll suggests tight three-way race in Irish election

Analysis by BBC News NI’s political editor, Enda McClafferty

Exit polls are far from an exact science, but they are a good indicator of where the votes go.

In 2020, it correctly predicted a close battle between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin and in the end, only three seats separated the parties

If the exit poll is right this time, then Sinn Féin will be pleased with its performance.

Coming in slightly ahead of Fine Gael, but short of the almost 25% Sinn Féin secured in 2020.

The party limped into the election campaign of the back of a series of damaging controversies and poor European and local council elections in June when it secured just 12% of the vote.

Over the three-week campaign, it managed to recover the lost ground with the promise of bringing change.

But delivering on that pledge could be a challenge if the exit poll is right.

It suggests Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5% could return to the government benches, with the help of two smaller parties and some independents.

While Sinn Féin’s path to power is more challenging as it had hoped to lead a coalition of left-leaning parties, it may struggle to get the numbers with the performance of those smaller parties.

But the true picture will only become clear when all results are in.