Renewable energy targets will be missed, consultants say

Northern Ireland and Ireland will miss their 2030 renewable energy target by at least two years, a leading consultancy firm has forecast.

Cornwall Insight says 70% of the grid will be using renewable sources by 2030, rather than the 80% goal both jurisdictions have set.

But it adds that significant progress has been made, with the Single Electricity Market having the highest contribution of wind generation of any power system in the world.

Northern Ireland had 45.8% of electricity generated from renewable sources in 2023, while Ireland had 42%.

The forecasters say renewable generation will reach 82% in 2032, but delays in planning and a shortage in grid connections will play a part in slowing down the renewables transition.

And these have been “significant barriers” to generators submitting bids in the Republic’s Renewable Energy Support Scheme (RESS) auction.

That resulted in just three successful onshore wind projects last year.

Kitty Nolan, Energy Modeller at Cornwall Insight, says that, without addressing the “systemic challenges” in the renewables development process, the energy goals will remain out of reach.

“While some may argue that the delay won’t have a significant impact, Ireland’s continued reliance on insecure imports exposes us to global market disruptions, which could drive up prices, while our dependence on fossil fuel generated power is delaying our progress toward achieving net zero.

“It’s crucial that we streamline these planning processes and invest in grid infrastructure to meet our climate commitments. Achieving the 80% renewable target is possible, but it requires decisive and immediate action from all stakeholders involved.”

Northern Ireland is currently designing its own renewable support scheme, aiming to boost renewable energy projects.

The first auction is anticipated for 2025/26, but much of the procured capacity is expected to come online after 2030.