The rail reason Enniskillen rail line was dropped: Costs soared to over €1 billion

Through a Freedom of Information request, The Impartial Reporter accessed presentations and correspondence that shed light on the decision-making process of the All-Ireland Strategic Rail Review (AISRR) and discussions surrounding the inclusion of a railway line in Fermanagh.

The AISRR, conducted jointly by Northern Ireland’s Department for Infrastructure (DfI) and the Republic of Ireland’s Department of Transport (DfT), sought to create a comprehensive plan for rail connectivity across the island.

The final report, published in July, outlined key transport recommendations but notably omitted Fermanagh, making it the only county without a railway. This was despite the fact that a significant portion of consultation responses, especially during public feedback stages, focused on Fermanagh and the northwest region.

The correspondence obtained, dating back to April 2023, reveals lengthy discussions about the feasibility of extending the rail network to Fermanagh. Despite 146 responses—out of 474 submitted in the second public consultation—raising concerns about Fermanagh’s exclusion, the county’s inclusion in the network was consistently dismissed as economically unviable. These responses accounted for roughly 32 per cent of the total and included notable submissions from political figures and local advocacy groups.

Contributors such as former UUP MLA Tom Elliott, DUP MLA Deborah Erskine, Sinn Féin MLA Áine Murphy, the rail lobby group Into the West, as well as the Alliance Party and SDLP, all urged the inclusion of Fermanagh in the rail network. The volume of responses from Fermanagh far outstripped those from other regions. Fermanagh alone contributed over 50 responses, whereas Derry-Londonderry and Dublin, the next highest responders, each submitted just over 20.

The internal communications revealed a striking attitude toward these public responses. In an email sent to the Project Management Group on November 14, 2023, it was noted that while there were hundreds of public submissions, the broader context should not be ignored: “Of course, we need to remember that approximately 7 million people on the island didn’t comment!” This remark seemingly downplayed the concerns raised by Fermanagh residents and local officials.

A pivotal presentation, held on February 6, 2024, provided further details on the potential costs associated with constructing new rail lines in the region. Estimates suggested that a railway line from Enniskillen to Omagh would cost around €400 million, while a line from Enniskillen to Clones would be slightly cheaper, at around €350 million. An extension from Enniskillen to Sligo was projected to be much more costly, at €750 million.

‘Poor value for money’

Despite these figures, the viability of such lines was questioned throughout the discussions. The Enniskillen to Omagh line, in particular, was described as “poor value for money”, with no compelling economic or social justification based on factors like tourism potential, population growth, demand for services, or projected journey times. The analysis indicated that the net cost of including this line in the review would negatively impact the overall economic case for the rail expansion.

The presentation clearly stated that introducing new lines would push the economic feasibility of the review into “negative territory”, noting that significant changes could “undermine the Review’s process and conclusions”. Nevertheless, officials acknowledged the need to appear responsive to public concerns, with the report noting: “That said, we want (and probably need) to show we have taken on board feedback from the consultation.”

Further discussions occurred in another meeting on February 23, 2024, during which the possibility of an Enniskillen to Omagh railway line was re-examined. A detailed summary assessed Enniskillen’s location in relation to major population centres. Demographic indicators such as population size, employment rates, and job opportunities suggested that Fermanagh was experiencing relatively weak growth compared to other areas further east, such as South Tyrone, Armagh, and Greater Belfast.

The assessment noted that, while a rail connection between Enniskillen and Omagh would provide journey times to Belfast that were comparable to car travel and faster than current bus services, the overall impact on public transport in the region would be limited. The projected demand for rail services in Enniskillen was low, based on forecasts conducted by the AISRR and a separate study commissioned by Translink, Northern Ireland’s public transport provider.

According to the demand forecasts, rail usage in Enniskillen was unlikely to surpass the threshold required to justify building a new railway line. While there might be sufficient demand to warrant constructing a new station on an existing line, the projected passenger numbers did not support the more substantial investment needed for a completely new rail route. The study concluded that Enniskillen’s relatively small population, coupled with its moderate rate of economic growth, did not present a strong enough case for major rail infrastructure development.

Evidence

With this evidence in hand, the Project Management Group decided that a new railway line between Enniskillen and Omagh was not economically justifiable and therefore did not include it in the draft Review Report. Further correspondence among officials reflected this conclusion. In one email, it was remarked: “I don’t think the population growth narrative will help Enniskillen.” Data from the 2011 and 2021 censuses showed that the population of Fermanagh and Omagh had grown by only three per cent—ranking eighth out of the 11 Northern Ireland councils—while Enniskillen itself had experienced growth of just 1.7 per cent.

An internal memo from the DfI further reinforced this point, noting that the modest population increase in Fermanagh suggested the county was not experiencing significant growth relative to other areas. As a result, the memo concluded: “There is unlikely to be an increase in demand in the coming years.”

Officials suggested remodelling demand forecasts against the latest available data, would “provide assurance” that all factors had been thoroughly considered. They believed this would help avoid future criticism or the possibility that updated data might lead to a different outcome.

Potential

Tourism was also examined as a potential driver for rail demand in Fermanagh. However, the review concluded that there was no additional justification for extending the rail network to Enniskillen based on tourism alone. This conclusion was reached after assessing the impact of tourism on demand at existing stations across the island, where no significant correlation was found. Since Fermanagh currently lacks any railway stations, estimates for rail demand were based on the population and employment figures within a 2km catchment area.

In a presentation given on February 23, Enniskillen ranked 41st in terms of tourist bed availability, with only eight per cent of the area’s beds being within this catchment zone. This low ranking, combined with the other economic and demographic factors, further weakened the case for rail development in the region.

Another unresolved question raised during the review was the potential location for a new station in Enniskillen. The documents obtained through the Freedom of Information request did not provide a definitive answer to this question.